Exploring what Southeast Asia and the United States can learn from each other to advance credible transition pathways

Description

Southeast Asia remains heavily reliant on coal while governments and utilities express strong commitments to long-term decarbonization. The central challenge is turning these commitments into practical, financeable and socially responsible plans for retiring, refinancing or repurposing coal assets without risking energy security. The United States offers a useful point of comparison. Coal use in the US has declined due to market forces, regulation and investment incentives. These conditions differ markedly from Southeast Asia, where many coal plants are younger, tied to long-term power purchase agreements and integrated into state-led power systems. Understanding these differences helps clarify which strategies can be adapted across regions and where new solutions are required.

Speakers

M.K. Balaji

Member of the Advisory Board, Energy Regulators Regional Association (ERRA)

Seth Grae

CEO, Lightbridge

Robbie Orvis

Senior Director, Modeling & Analysis, Energy Innovation

Stephen Holland

Professor, University of North Carolina Greensboro, Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research

Dr. Justin Johnson Kakeu

University of Prince Edward Island (UPEI), Interim Chair and Associate Professor of Economics

Guided Questions

Seth Grae

Given your leadership in developing advanced nuclear fuel technologies and advising governments on nuclear deployment, what role—if any—do you see advanced nuclear and small modular reactors playing in Southeast Asia’s long-term coal transition, particularly regarding system stability and energy security? Based on your experience shaping national nuclear strategies, what lessons can Southeast Asia draw from countries like the UAE in integrating low-carbon baseload solutions into broader transition pathways, especially in markets heavily shaped by long-term coal contracts?

M.K. Balaji

With your extensive background in mobilizing financing for clean energy projects across Africa and Asia, what financing structures or risk-mitigation mechanisms do you believe are most viable for supporting managed coal phase-out in Southeast Asia, given current investor expectations and market constraints? Reflecting on your work in both grid and off-grid energy programs under USAID, what practical steps can regulators and utilities take to accelerate financing readiness and reduce project-level uncertainties that often delay coal retirement and renewable integration?

Robbie Orvis

Given your extensive work with the Energy Policy Simulator across multiple countries, what modeling insights or indicators do you believe are most critical for Southeast Asian governments as they design credible, near-term coal retirement pathways that balance affordability and reliability? Drawing from U.S. experience in designing climate policies for deep decarbonization, which elements of U.S. power-sector regulation or market reform do you see as most transferable to Southeast Asia, and which require substantial adaptation due to differences in system structure and PPAs?

Stephen Holland

Your recent research examines how the environmental benefits of electrification evolve as power systems decarbonize. In the context of Southeast Asia—where coal remains a major part of the generation mix—what insights can your work offer on the timing and sequencing of electrification policies (e.g., EVs, industrial electrification) to ensure they produce net environmental gains? How should policymakers weigh marginal emissions impacts when planning coal retirement alongside electrification growth?

Dr. Justin Johnson Kakeu

Drawing on your research in dynamic macroeconomics and uncertainty in resource and climate policies, how should Southeast Asian policymakers account for long-term uncertainty—such as fluctuating fuel prices, regulatory shifts, and investment risk—when designing credible and financeable coal retirement pathways? Your work in sustainable finance and environmental economics emphasizes the interaction between policy design, incentives, and investment behavior. Given the younger coal fleet and the prevalence of long-term PPAs in Southeast Asia, what policy and financial incentive structures do you believe would most effectively shift investor and utility behavior toward earlier coal phase-out?