U.S.–Iran Tensions and Diplomatic Talks
Diplomacy at the Brink: Nuclear Negotiations, Sanctions Pressure, and the Risk of Regional Escalation
Description
Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are once again reshaping the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, as Tehran signals openness to restarting nuclear negotiations through indirect regional channels while simultaneously issuing stark warnings of escalation. Iran’s Supreme Leader has cautioned that any U.S. military strike could ignite a wider regional conflict, highlighting the fragile balance between diplomacy and deterrence. This event will examine the current state of U.S.–Iran relations, the prospects and limits of renewed nuclear talks, and the broader implications for regional stability, energy markets, and global security.
Background
Rising U.S.–Iran tensions once again place the Middle East at the intersection of diplomacy, deterrence, and escalation risk. As Tehran signals cautious openness to restarting nuclear negotiations through indirect regional channels, it has simultaneously warned that any U.S. military action could trigger a broader regional conflict, underscoring the fragile balance between engagement and coercion.…
Date: 2026-02-12
Time (ET): 11:00 AM EST, Feb 12, 2026
Time (Local): 4:00 PM UTC, Feb 12, 2026
Location: online
Speakers
David (Dj) Wolff
Co-chair International Trade Group, Crowell & Moring
Trevor G. Schmitt
Senior Associate, Arnold & Porter
Ibrahim Al-Assil
Senior Research Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Jason Wright
Partner, StepToe
Guided Questions
Ibrahim Al-Assil
Given your experience advising policymakers and participating in Track II security dialogues, if U.S.–Iran tensions intensify, how likely is Iran to escalate indirectly through regional actors rather than direct confrontation, and what would that mean for stability in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon?
David (Dj) Wolff
From the perspective of sanctions compliance and enforcement risk, how should global companies and financial institutions prepare for a scenario in which diplomacy and escalation remain equally plausible, and what policy or enforcement signals matter most?
Trevor G. Schmitt
Drawing on your work in national security law and export controls enforcement, how does heightened U.S.–Iran tension change the risk profile for companies operating in sensitive sectors, particularly with respect to ITAR, EAR, and OFAC compliance—even absent new formal sanctions?
Jason Wright
Based on your work across sanctions, export controls, and national security litigation, as well as your continued service in the U.S. Army Reserve, where do you see the greatest legal and operational constraints on U.S. decision-makers if tensions with Iran escalate—and how might those constraints shape the range of realistic policy options?