Diplomacy at the Brink: Nuclear Negotiations, Sanctions Pressure, and the Risk of Regional Escalation

Description

Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran are once again reshaping the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, as Tehran signals openness to restarting nuclear negotiations through indirect regional channels while simultaneously issuing stark warnings of escalation. Iran’s Supreme Leader has cautioned that any U.S. military strike could ignite a wider regional conflict, highlighting the fragile balance between diplomacy and deterrence. This event will examine the current state of U.S.–Iran relations, the prospects and limits of renewed nuclear talks, and the broader implications for regional stability, energy markets, and global security.

Speakers

Xunchao Zhang

International Security Fellow , Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş

Fellow, Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy program

Jonathan C. Poling

Partner, Akin

Guided Questions

Xunchao Zhang

Given your work on public opinion and foreign policy decision-making, how do domestic audiences in the U.S. and Iran shape leaders’ willingness to compromise in nuclear negotiations, and could internal political narratives become a greater barrier to diplomacy than material strategic disagreements?

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş

From your perspective on democratic backsliding and great power competition, how does the broader erosion of the rules-based international order affect the credibility and durability of any future nuclear agreement with Iran?

Jonathan C. Poling

Given your work on CFIUS, export controls, and cross-border investigations, how might renewed U.S.–Iran escalation reshape global supply chains, foreign investment scrutiny, and trade finance risk, particularly for firms operating in dual-use or sensitive technology sectors?